10 March 2026
Fantastic night at a packed-out IEA as the Margaret Thatcher Centre launched our Living History series with a detailed examination of Sir Geoffrey Howe's 1981 Budget. The panel included the Rt Hon Sir Jeremy Hunt MP with The Rt Hon Lord Lamont of Lerwick and Sir Adam Ridley. Dr Tim Aker Academic Director of the Margaret Thatcher Centre chaired the. A lively Q&A session followed. My question was “Mervyn King, the former Governor of the Bank of England said that “No economist is capable of forecasting the state of the economy for more than one year in advance. Five year forecasts always show the difficult decisions like cutting expenditure and reducing borrowings in the fourth and fifth years which with continuous revisions the cuts and reductions never happen. Do the panel agree, and if so shouldn’t the OBR restrict its forecasts to one year?
Norman Lamont said that the OBR needs reform but he would keep it! Adam Ridley said he would keep it but we needed good economists! Earlier in the meeting it was pointed out that 364 economists opposed Geffrey Howes budget in 1981 which was the turning point in the economic fortunes of the United Kingdom!
So where are the "good economists?"
