The Following article was written by Graham Thomas in December 2021 If only the Establishment had listened then! It has certainly stood the test of time.
UKRAINE..
The policy of the “West” to confront Russia over the situation in Ukraine is wrong. Borders in Eastern Europe have been fluid for centuries. UK policy should be to support the will of the peoples in the region. It should not be based on borders where the musical chairs stopped after WW2 and the USSR breakup. Although EU national borders are now fixed, Ukraine is different. The peoples of the Ukrainian regions should decide (One Person, One Vote).
Crimea: Crimea is historically part of Mother Russia. A majority of Crimeans want to be part of Russia. The Russian “invasion” was necessary due to Ukrainian intransigence over the Khrushchev error of placing Crimea in the Ukraine Soviet for administrative reasons. In Crimea, 95.5% voted to join Russia, in an disputed 2014 referendum but an Ukrainian poll in 2004 found that 97% of Crimeans speak Russian in the home. It is clear that at least 52% voted to join Russia. As with Northern Ireland, Scotland, the Falklands, Gibraltar, … UK policy should be to recognise the right of the people of Crimea, and of other Ukrainian regions, to determine their future. This is in stark contrast to EU policy which is typified by the suppression of Catalonia and glossing over the marginalisation of the minority (country-wide) Russian-speaking Ukrainians.
Other regions: Russia feels an obligation to protect the Russia-leaning minority from being unwillingly subsumed by the “West”. But the Russian bluster, heavy-handed actions, proprietorial attitude, unacceptable demands towards the US and NATO, and destructive interference elsewhere (e.g. in the Balkans) serves to obscure a kernel of justification. Eastern Ukraine, especially Luhansk and Donetsk, is more Russian than Ukrainian; by recent history, by geography, by culture, and by resisting Ukrainian repression (for example, their language is suppressed in schools). UK should encourage engagement with Ukraine and Russia to address the legitimate substance of the issue. Crimea is now part of Russia; this will not change. Other Ukrainian regions should be given transparent referenda, One Person One Vote: Remain or Leave Ukraine. The Leavers would form an independent state, which later could seek to join Russia; it could be their democratic choice. UK should be advocating negotiations with Ukraine (and Russia and the EU) to secure country-wide referenda, with thirdparty oversight and “guarantees” that all will respect. The partition of Ireland, and of India to create Pakistan (and ultimately Bangladesh) are precedents for Ukraine. Such partitions had evils, but probably less than the evils otherwise. Czechoslovakia separated peacefully.
The principle is the democratic right to self-determination for the people of a well-defined region. I hope you find merit in this approach, sufficient to raise it in the corridors of power. Ukraine is not a cause for confrontation with Russia. Instead, democratically-based concessions to Russian concerns in Ukraine should be linked to renewed agreements on borders elsewhere (viz. the Baltic states).
